Here is the math behind the recent rush to buy forested land in the Amazon: avoided deforestation, once audited and certified, leads to a yield per hectare of 10 credits per year. At current prices of US$ 15, that is a yield per year, for 30 years, of US$ 150 per hectare (Amapa state average prices were R$ 1312 in 2019, or US$ 262, Amazonas was R$ 356, or US$ 70). Well, if one is buying these hectares at US$ 150 on average, and it takes 3 years to certify, that is a 4 year payback or 20–25% IRR. What would be a more reasonable yield? Let’s say 5%? That would mean that, keeping carbon credit prices constant, forested land prices would have to rise to US$ 600–750, leading forested land value to surpass the value of cleared land. Voila, we will have saved the forest, as no one in their right mind will buy land for US$ 600 to burn and resell for US$ 500.